Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems.
Probabilistic forecasting models describe the aleatory variability of natural systems as well as our epistemic uncertainty about how the systems work. Testing a model against observations exposes ontological errors in the representation of a system and its uncertainties. We clarify several conceptual issues regarding the testing of probabilistic forecasting models for ontological errors: the am...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0027-8424,1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1410183111